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van den Bos (2009) contends that although mortality salience may account for various defensive reactions when people are confronted by the threat of mortality, these reactions are also driven by the personal uncertainty that the threat of mortality raises (van den Bos, 2009). R Soc. In this way, uncertainty may increase cognitive processing (i.e., two distinct simulations of winning, one for each gift), which then lengthens the experience of positive affect. 65, 245–256. Trends Cogn. We are not aware of any data or theories showing this directly, but as described earlier there is a vast literature describing how affect and emotions influence perceptions of risk (Johnson and Tversky, 1983; DeSteno et al., 2000; Lerner and Keltner, 2001; Loewenstein et al., 2001) and decisions (Schwarz and Clore, 1983; Damasio, 1994, 1996; Slovic et al., 2007) in situations of complexity, ambiguity, and indeterminacy. Lower levels of uncertainty might influence emotions in one direction (intensifying), while higher levels of uncertainty might influence emotions in the opposite direction (dampening). Soc. Additionally, negative beliefs have been shown to influence the perception of food, whereas positive beliefs do not (Anderson and Barrett, 2016). Found insideThis book provides an overview of behavioral decision theory and related research findings. When asked which situation they would prefer to be in, more participants chose the certain condition compared to the uncertain condition, even though participants in the uncertain condition actually felt pleasant longer. This volume contains the revised papers of an international symposium on research on fallacies, biases, and the development of decision behavior under uncertainty. The papers are organized in five main sections. Risk, ambiguity, and the savage axioms. We propose that one aspect of attitude certainty—attitude correctness, or the perception that one's attitude is the "right" attitude to have—will predict more competitive conflict styles. Discrete emotions are particular psychological states like disgust, guilt, or happiness. Theoretical and empirical findings from different fields have not been integrated in coherent fashion. doi: 10.3758/BRM.42.1.226, Friston, K. (2010). Beyond testing hypotheses about the role of simulation in generating affective responses to uncertainty, we believe there are additional research questions that would be fruitful to explore further. Front. Emotion 9, 123–127. Gen. Psychol. Soc. We do know that minds are active even when people are resting and not given explicit instructions—that is, people’s minds wander (for review see Smallwood and Schooler, 2015). Sci. Radomsky, A. S., & Alcolado, G. M. (2010). For instance, a “signal” might consist of a co-worker’s ambiguous facial expression, which may or may not represent a social threat (e.g., “are they mad at me”?). The vast body of research to date has shown that moving people from unconscious to conscious ignorance clearly has cognitive, emotional, and behavioral effects. Miller, Scott A.; And Others. Appraisal theories also generally assume that the same stimuli will not always cause same emotions because the intervening appraisals might differ. We argued that UT can be construed as either a state or a stable personality trait that predisposes individuals to specific psychological responses, but that the view of UT as a trait has dominated the literature (Hillen et al., 2017). Proc. Mouse-tracking has been used to study decisional conflict as people choose between two or more options, and mouse trajectories might be related to uncertainty (Freeman and Ambady, 2010). Your brain detects something is wrong, and your ability to focus on other issues . More broadly, perspectives from emotion regulation (Gross, 2014) offer theory-based guidance for possible strategies for coping with uncertainty. Is it possible for p to be certain without being known by . doi: 10.1037/a0019701, McGregor, I., Prentice, M. S., and Nash, K. A. Ther. Similarly, the somatic marker hypothesis (Damasio, 1994, 1996) suggests that changes in the visceral states of the body (heart rate, blood pressure, gut, and nervous system activity) act as affective signals that help guide people to adaptive action (Reimann and Bechara, 2010). 17, 187–202. 11, 127–138. Found insideSee the decision-making process behind investments. The Psychology of Investing is the first text of its kind to delve into the fascinating subject of how psychology affects investing. doi: 10.1177/0272989X11393976, Hewitt, S. N., Egan, S., and Rees, C. (2009). 2nd Edn. nonnumeric certainty estimates (Studies 1-3), feelings of concern (Study 4), and choice behaviors (Study 5) revealed that the manipulations did affect subjective certainty. Conversely, in the domain of losses, because people It stands to reason that trait-level differences in UT may moderate the effects of uncertainty on affect. A new study provides evidence that lower-class individuals are stereotyped as insensitive to physical pain, which could impact their medical care and treatment recommendations. Participants experiencing uncertainty maintained positive affect longer than those who knew which gift they would receive. Individuals’ life experiences (e.g., a person’s experience with cancer) will also likely shape responses. Psychol. (1979). (2018). It is also important to note that although we focus here on the psychological literature, researchers in other domains have also studied affect and uncertainty using different methods and from different theoretical perspectives. According to the "Certainty Effect," in the domain of gains, because people overweight certainty, and gains are desirable outcomes, overweighting a sure gain leads people to choose it over a risky gain. Soc. Each of us is an autonomous individual seeking our own objectives, yet we are also members of groups—groups that constrain us, guide us, and sustain us. Psychol. Are they driven by life experience and/or genetic factors? The somatic marker hypothesis and the possible functions of the prefrontal cortex. A response to Panksepp and izard. Making sense of life: the existential self trying to deal with personal uncertainty. Certainty. Ther. Inq. Addressing these problems requires applied research aimed at improving people’s ability to regulate and cope with the negative emotional effects of uncertainty. Psychol. Found insideAfter introducing the theory, the book covers the analysis of contingency tables, t-tests, ANOVAs and regression. Bayesian statistics are covered at the end of the book. Intolerance of uncertainty: a common factor in the treatment of emotional disorders. Neurosci. “Exploring the relationship of reward and punishment in reinforcement learning” in IEEE symposium on adaptive dynamic programming and reinforcement learning, ADPRL, 140–147. Rev. Next, people can control what stimulus they attend to in the situation (e.g., closing eyes). Soc. Behav. Propinquity Effect. For instance, even when confronted with conflicting visual information in binocular rivalry experiments, the visual system prioritizes faces associated with negative gossip over other faces (Anderson et al., 2011). Psychol. Thus, a person can focus on ideals or worldview to help clarify what to do when experiencing anxious uncertainty. Career Dev. In prospect theory, the pseudocertainty effect is the tendency for people to perceive an outcome as certain while it is actually uncertain in multi-stage decision making. Psychological certainty has been the subject of a great deal of research across a number of different literatures. Consider a patient first learning she has been diagnosed with cancer. doi: 10.1037/0022-3514.88.1.5, Wilson, T. D., and Gilbert, D. T. (2005). 180, 62–75. 80, 472–488. Influence of affect on cognitive social learning person variables. When predictions are incorrect, neural error signals feedback to perceptual brain areas, enabling the brain to tune and calibrate future predictions. Available at: http://resources.library.brandeis.edu/login?url=http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=psyh&AN=1999-04290-015&site=ehost-live&scope=site, Rabin, M., and Thaler, R. H. (2001). This limits our ability to draw firm inferences about the effects of uncertainty on affect. Bargh, J. 20, 225–229. Wandering minds: the default network and stimulus-independent thought. Appraisal theories of emotion: state of the art and future development. Panic Button Effect. If uncertainty can be unconscious as well as conscious, then the distinction between ignorance and uncertainty becomes obliterated. B. Most of these theories describe uncertainty as aversive, and most focus on the relationship between uncertainty and negative affect or emotional states. Dispositional optimism and pessimism are two such traits. J. This theory, however, does not specify exactly why or how uncertainty is associated with anxiety (negative affect) beyond this evolutionary argument. (Eds.) Ph.D. in Social Psychology from Ohio State University, 2003. The obvious question is why uncertainty leads to these different outcomes and what factors moderate and mediate its effects? Behav. It is a higher-order metacognition representing a particular kind of explicit knowledge—an acknowledgment of what one does not know, but also that one does not know. A moderating role of realism or ecological validity in people’s affective responses to uncertainty has been supported by both empirical evidence and theory. J. Pers. Clin. Rev. Affect and emotions can be controlled and regulated using various strategies. Rev. This leads to the possibility that interventions that target simulation might help people regulate affective experience in the face of uncertainty. 10, 328–345. This emerging theoretical perspective construes responding to perceptual uncertainty as the fundamental task and challenge of the brain. This construct has been described by researchers using various overlapping, inversely-related, and logically equivalent terms (e.g., uncertainty tolerance, uncertainty intolerance, ambiguity tolerance, and ambiguity intolerance) and has also been defined in different ways, although existing definitions include several shared elements. Additionally, conscious awareness of mental simulation—in a broad sense covering the range of processes described above—might vary. Normally a reduction in the probability of winning a reward (e.g., a reduction from 80% to 20% in the chance of winning a reward) creates a psychological effect such as displeasure to individuals, which . Emot. Cacioppo, J. T., Berntson, G. G., Norris, C. J., and Gollan, J. K. (2012). Radomsky, A. S., Gilchrist, P. T., & Dussault, D. (2006). Although most empirical and theoretical research to date has focused on the negative effects of uncertainty on affect (Gray and McNaughton, 2000; McGregor et al., 2009; van den Bos, 2009; Hirsh et al., 2012; Grupe and Nitschke, 2013; Carleton, 2016a), there is some experimental evidence suggesting that uncertainty has positive effects (Kurtz et al., 2007) and also intensifies (Bar-Anan et al., 2009) or dampens affective feelings (van Dijk and Zeelenberg, 2006). Affective beliefs influence the experience of eating meat. B. University of Richmond. This book represents the first full-scale summary of the current state of appraisal research. Emotion circuits in the brain. However, these actions also raise the possibility of obtaining conflicting information—for example, differing opinions among experts or conflicting test results—which can generate greater uncertainty. Of mice and men: natural kinds of emotions in the mammalian brain? Some studies have found that uncertainty can intensify emotions (Bar-Anan et al., 2009) while others found uncertainty dampens emotions (van Dijk and Zeelenberg, 2006). Found inside – Page 49The possibility effect and the certainty effect are reflected in the probability weighting function as being steep at the ends and flatter in the middle ... Adv. Science 293, 2105–2108. It is quite possible, however, that uncertainty has differential effects on particular affective states or specific emotions (e.g., surprise, guilt, disgust). The absence of such evidence thus allows for an alternative explanation for the discrepant results of past research—specifically, these discrepant results may result from variation in the levels of uncertainty manipulated in different studies. A. doi: 10.1037/0033-295X.110.1.145, Russell, J. J. Exp. However, we currently lack empirical evidence on these effects. These multisystem responses can then lead persons to change their focus of attention and to modify the situation, which creates a new cycle of emotion generation. In general, while the available literature offers useful insights, important knowledge gaps remain. Rev. In this theory, “anxious uncertainty” is a term that directly connects affective responses (i.e., anxiety) to uncertainty. Description. Ignorance and uncertainty: Emerging paradigms. Natl. “The behavioural inhibition system: a possible substrate for anxiety” in Theoretical and experimental bases of behaviour modification. It is possible that any of these features might influence affect and other mental processes. It stands to reason that uncertainty would result in more aversive affective responses among people who are pessimistic—and thereby predisposed to simulate the worst possible outcomes, and less aversive responses among people who are optimistic—and predisposed to simulate more positive events. Psychol. Brain Sci., 1–63. Thus, an important direction for future work is to improve the measurement of uncertainty itself. This might help them plan for what would be needed in different possible situations. For instance, the somatic marker hypothesis suggests that simulation of bodily states (the reactivation of the “as-if body loop”) play a critical role in decision making and learning about rewards and punishment (Damasio, 1996). For instance, light striking the retina can be reflected off a number of sources, leading to perceptual uncertainty about exactly what objects are in the environment. Uncertainty vs. certainty about goals and outcomes is another appraisal dimension proposed by many appraisal theorists (see Moors et al., 2013). Predictive brains, situated agents, and the future of cognitive science. As described above, most past empirical and theoretical work has focused on negative or undesirable affective responses to uncertainty. For example, uncertainty about which of two gifts might possibly be won leads people to imagine winning the first gift, and to further extend their processing of pleasant scenarios by then imagining winning the second gift. “The evaluative space model” in Handbook of Theories of Social Psychology. J. Anxiety Disord. 110, 145–172. For example, when Jill is walking alone at night (1), she might spot and attend to a shadowy alley (2). “Emotional learning and mechanisms of intentional psychological change” in Action and self-development: Theory and research through the life span. These different regulation strategies align with the different components of emotion generation described above in the modal model of emotions. Existing theoretical frameworks do not focus explicitly on the relationship between uncertainty and affect, and are descriptive rather than explanatory. Sci. Barrett, L. F., Ochsner, K. N., and Gross, J. J. Intolerance of uncertainty in obsessive-compulsive disorder. (2013). Greenberg, J., Solomon, S., and Pyszczynski, T. (1997). Psychol. Couns. Participants who were uncertain about which prize they lost experienced less intense negative affect associated with the loss. Thought theorists typically posit pleasant (positive affect) and unpleasant (negative affect) are poles on a single scale, others argue they are distinct processes that can be disassociated (Cacioppo et al., 2012). Additionally, future work should explore the breadth of variability in how uncertainty relates to affective states. Reproducibility and Replicability in Science defines reproducibility and replicability and examines the factors that may lead to non-reproducibility and non-replicability in research. Greene, J. D., Sommerville, R. B., Nystrom, L. E., Darley, J. M., and Cohen, J. D. (2001). Therefore, the appraised uncertainty of a situation is fundamentally linked to the experience of different emotions. Affect, generalization, and the perception of risk. Having offered working definitions of both uncertainty and affect, we now turn to the central question of interest of the current analysis: the relationship between these two mental states. In everyday lives, however, little is known about what factors determine the content—and ultimately the affective valence—of mental simulations. Cognit. We'll cover how the certainty effect works and its role in Daniel Kahneman's prospect theory. That is, can affective feeling influence the experience of uncertainty? J. Pers. The authors also found that participants in the uncertain condition were more curious about the films and that curiosity mediated the relationship between uncertainty and affect. School Econ. Med. For instance, physicians may be motivated to present themselves as highly skilled and confident (Katz, 2002), which might lead them to underreport their own experience of uncertainty. deliberate and slow—people’s cognitive and affective responses to uncertainty are in different life situations. Thus, uncertainty could arise in situations that are generally positive. Intolerance of uncertainty in emotional disorders: what uncertainties remain? One interesting implication of the BIS theory is that the conflict between two positive options would result in BIS activation (e.g., “Should I eat delicious food A or delicious food B”? This is an important methodological deficiency given that people may not experience similar levels of uncertainty even when they are in similar situations. Baltimore and London. Expert. The Pratfall Effect. We suggest that people have a propensity to simulate negative outcomes, which result in a propensity toward negative affective responses to uncertainty. Psychology MCQ Social Psychology Chapter 4 The so-called "certainty effect" in decision-making refers to tendency for people to give greater weight to ____ than to ____. Lond. Johns Hopkins University Press. Anxious uncertainty and reactive approach motivation (RAM). The authors did not propose a specific mechanism for the effect, but raised the possibility that uncertainty might produce “mixed feelings that are difficult to integrate” (van Dijk and Zeelenberg, 2006, p. 175). Biol. 11, 49–57. The co-worker might truly be upset and in need of relationship repair, but may alternatively not be distressed and might be thinking of something else entirely, in which case behavior to repair the relationship might be unneeded or even costly. For example, researchers instruct participants to simulate particular situations—e.g., remember a time they felt angry or happy. Do people experiencing particular emotions have different experiences of uncertainty? 12, 937–947. Available at: http://psycnet.apa.org/journals/psp/76/5/805/, Schroeder, P. A., Dignath, D., and Janczyk, M. (2018). Ellsberg, D. (1961). Individual differences in uncertainty tolerance are not associated with cognitive control functions in the flanker task. Additionally, there are many domains in which uncertainty is possible (e.g., financial, health, art) and it is not clear how similar or different the experience of uncertainty is in these different domains. The process model of emotion regulation, from Gross (2014). B., Mar, R. A., and Peterson, J. The certainty effect is the tendency of people to feel disproportionately better about outcomes that are certain compared to outcomes that are probable or possible. Nature 489, 427–430. A pilot study to address tolerance of uncertainty among family medicine residents. Social Psychology Chapter 4 a. definite outcomes; probabilities (1976). Found insideArgues that certainty and similar feelings are independent of active, conscious reflection and reasoning, stemming from the primitive areas of the brain. The affect heuristic. A related limitation is the lack of specificity in measures of uncertainty, which have largely treated uncertainty as a monolithic phenomenon. However, we are unaware of any empirical work has systematically studied the relationship between uncertainty and a broad range of particular affective and emotional states. doi: 10.1177/1077558712459361, Han, P. K. J., Klein, W. M. P. P., and Arora, N. K. (2011). The goal of this article was to briefly review and synthesize the literature on the relationship between uncertainty and affect. The . Lynn, S. K., and Barrett, L. F. (2014). In general, more research is needed to test the different models to elucidate the mechanisms underlying the link between uncertainty and affect. San Diego: North Holland. Psychol. Found insideProfessors Ross and Nisbett eloquently argue that the context we find ourselves in substantially affects our behavior in this timely reissue of one of social psychology's classic textbooks. Specifically, affective responses prepare the body for possible actions using predictions about what physiological resources will be needed (i.e., allostasis; Sterling, 2012). 59, 750–767. Leipzig: Wilhelm Engelmann, translation of Grundriss der Psychologie, 1896. In this paper we have focused on uncertainty causing affective feelings, but causality in the opposite direction might be possible too. Other techniques for measuring uncertainty that do not rely on self-reports should be explored and validated. 41, 91–113. Suspense: Conceptualizations, theoretical analyses, and empirical explorations. Persons with greater tolerance for ambiguity may also be more likely to engage in pro-social risk-taking behaviors (Vives and Feldman Hall, 2018). Our overarching aim is to synthesize common themes and ideas raised by these theories, and to identify potential mechanisms that might link uncertainty and affect. Other theories have examined the relationship more specifically and directly, focusing on uncertainty as a primary cause of affective reactions (e.g., van den Bos, 2009; Hirsh et al., 2012; Grupe and Nitschke, 2013; Carleton, 2016a). Emotions, as distinguished from affect, are mental states whose essential nature has been an ongoing focus of lively debate (Barrett et al., 2007a). B., and Ambady, N. (2010). The consistent direction of this alternative-outcomes effect and findings from Study 6 suggest that comparisons between the An essential initial task of any analysis such as this is to establish a useful working definition of the term “uncertainty.” Despite the large volume of scholarship on uncertainty by psychologists and other social scientists, this term has often been either not explicitly defined or else defined in varying and often inconsistent ways. Sci. To explain these findings, the authors theorized that uncertainty about a pleasant event holds people’s attention, causing them to think more about the possibility of the event which extends their experience of positive affect. Psychol. Rev. UAMA focuses on clinical anxiety (Grupe and Nitschke, 2013), but the psychological systems are present in healthy populations; therefore, this model could be useful in understanding the link between uncertainty and affect more broadly. 5, 119–124. Psychol. In indeterminate situations, mental simulation of possible outcomes is a plausible adaptive strategy. This paper presents two studies in which we aimed to investigate the presence of a halo effect in teachers' judgements (Study 1 and Study 2) and to clarify the conditions for the emergence of this halo effect by analysing the influence of judgement certainty (Study 2). Their choices can be affected by simply reframing the descriptions of the outcomes without changing the actual utility. New York: Oxford University Press. Affect is a form of cognition: a neurobiological analysis. This is particularly true for the construct of uncertainty tolerance. Rev. Participants reliably have skin conductance responses when they are uncertain about the outcome of their gamble (Bechara et al., 2005). They are; certainty, isolation effect, and loss aversion. 14, 488–501. The critical need moving forward is for an explanatory psychological theory that details the causal pathway from uncertainty to affective responses—both negative and positive. For instance, participants might be placed in the “uncertainty condition” where they are presumed to be uncertain about the outcome of a lottery. Affective science and health: the importance of emotion and emotion regulation. The reasons for these differences in people’s affective responses to uncertainty, however, are not well understood. A bio-informational theory of emotional imagery. The sunk cost effect is manifested in a greater tendency to continue an endeavor once an investment in money, effort, or time has been made. Personal uncertainty management by reactive approach motivation. Performance of the predictors in a model that controls these effects should be a more reliable guide to each predictor's effect. The Merriam-Webster dictionary defines uncertainty as “the state of being uncertain” and uses a plethora of terms to describe what it means to be uncertain: indefinite, indeterminate, not certain to occur, problematical, not reliable, untrustworthy, not known beyond doubt, dubious, doubtful, not clearly identified or defined, not constant, variable, and fitful. It stands to reason that uncertain outcomes of lower probability, such as getting struck by lightning, would generate weaker affective responses than uncertain outcomes of higher probability, such as contracting the flu during a documented epidemic. 49, 1460–1469. 2 thoughts on " Psychological effects of hazing " Jon Winneg December 5, 2014 at 5:30 am. doi: 10.1111/j.0963-7214.2005.00355.x, Wright, J., and Mischel, W. (1982). The UAMA model proposes that clinical anxiety disorders are due to heightened expectancies about the probability and cost of future threats. Res. J. Pers. Prosocial Behavior. J. Pers. 177, 1333–1352. Toward a physiology of dual-process reasoning and judgment. This information handout contains an exercise helpful for individuals with Obsessive Compulsive Disorder (OCD). This account may have some practical utility as well: if simulation is indeed the causal link between uncertainty and affect, changing what people simulate should change affective responses to uncertainty. A new study shows that uncertainity is even more stressful than knowing something bad is definitely going to happen. (1979). Psychol. The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest. Kristen, this is a very interesting blog post that revolves around a controversial topic that is beginning to have more light shed upon it. More research is needed to develop reliable, valid measures that ascertain the variety of uncertainties that arise in life, and to examine their differential effects. However, if uncertainty about a medical test result induces mental simulations of a negative outcome such as receiving a phone call with a cancer diagnosis, then uncertainty will likely lead to negative affective feelings. Significance: feeling unique, important, special or needed. Finally, as noted in this review, there is evidence of a link between uncertainty and affect, and measures of affect might thus be used to draw inferences about experienced uncertainty. doi: 10.1038/nrn2787, Garrison, Y. L., Lee, K. H., and Ali, S. R. (2017). Table of Contents. The brain’s default network: anatomy, function, and relevance to disease. Evidence that the psychological justification for this . Indeed, in a study of medical students, UT was increased as a function of education that specifically focused on increasing tolerance for ambiguity (Taylor et al., 2018). doi: 10.1080/02699930701437931, Duttle, K., and Inukai, K. (2015). Okay, moment of openness—the "certainty" effect seems overall less consistent across a bunch of studies. doi: 10.1016/j.ejor.2005.04.006, Smallwood, J., and Schooler, J. W. (2015). Empirically, mental simulations can generate affective and emotional experiences (Lang, 1977, 1979). Received: 03 May 2019; Accepted: 22 October 2019; Published: 12 November 2019. More research is needed to understand the affective and emotional effects of uncertainty existing at different levels of conscious awareness, ranging from complete unconsciousness (pure ignorance) to complete consciousness of ignorance (pure uncertainty). Damasio, A. R. (1994). J. Pers. . In similar fashion, the affect heuristic theory (Slovic et al., 2007) suggests that mental representations of objects, events, and options are associated with affective tags. Sci. In a recent review of the multi-disciplinary literature on UT (Hillen et al., 2017), we assessed how researchers from various fields have conceptualized UT, either explicitly in published definitions of the construct, or implicitly in published measures used to assess UT. Content—And ultimately the affective valence—of mental simulations can generate affective and emotional experiences e.g.... An important methodological deficiency given that people may not experience similar levels of uncertainty among family medicine residents relevance. Offer theory-based guidance for possible strategies for coping with uncertainty treatment of disorders. Different possible situations something bad is definitely going to happen the probability and cost of future threats uncertainty! Outcome of their gamble ( Bechara et al., 2005 ) why uncertainty leads to the possibility interventions! 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( 2017 ) i.e., anxiety ) to uncertainty Wilson, T. D. and. The analysis of contingency tables, t-tests, ANOVAs and regression the task... Appraisal research 2014 ) have largely treated uncertainty as the fundamental task and challenge the... Provides an overview of behavioral decision theory and related research findings and Gilbert, D. ( 2006 ),. On the relationship between uncertainty and affect directly connects affective responses to uncertainty are in different situations! The reasons for these differences in people ’ s cognitive and affective responses i.e.! Paper we have focused on uncertainty causing affective feelings, but causality in the situation ( e.g., closing )! The appraised uncertainty of a situation is fundamentally linked to the experience of different emotions should... Egan, S., and Ali, S. N., Egan, S. and! Affect longer than those who knew which gift they would receive life experiences ( e.g., closing eyes ) OCD. 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